By Chris Ingram
The Tampa Tribune
Published Saturday, October 13, 2012
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports was generally believed to have been the most accurate pollster in predicting the outcome of the presidential election between John McCain and Barack Obama. Assuming Rasmussen maintains that accuracy this election season, Mitt Romney will be the next president.
As of Wednesday, Rasmussen has Romney beating Obama 48 percent to 47 percent, with 4 percent undecided, and 1 percent preferring another candidate. Of course, that is a national poll result, and it is meaningless since we elect the president through the Electoral College in what amounts to 50 state elections.
Recognizing this, Rasmussen conducts individual state polls and then aggregates the 11 crucial swing states (of which Florida is one) to come up with a swing state average that currently has Romney up by 2 percent (49 to 47 percent). It is in these swing states where the election will be decided.
For Republicans, Romney’s change of fortune after the first presidential debate should give them a sigh of relief. From now until Election Day, so long as Romney doesn’t have a major gaffe in one of the remaining debates or on the campaign trail, he should win.
In fact, even if the polling suggests he is down a point or two, I expect he will still pull out a victory on Nov. 6 because there is absolutely no intensity for Obama compared to 2008. This is relevant to the polls because lacking intensity, a lot of people who will tell a pollster they would vote for Obama is not the same as actually voting. Click here to read the full column in The Tampa Tribune.
Chris Ingram is the president and founder of 411 Communications a corporate and political communications firm, and publisher of Irreverent View. Ingram is a frequent pundit on Fox News and CNN, and has written opinion columns for the Washington Times, UPI, and National Review online. He is the Republican political analyst for Bay News 9, the only 24 hour all news channel in Florida’s largest media market. The opinions expressed here are those of author and do not represent the views of Bay News 9. E-mail him at: Chris@IrreverentView.com.
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